Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
